Us-Iran Tensions

Good morning and welcome today. Cash Rate Day. Welcome to it. The Privacy Report into the Manage My Health hack Stephen Joyce on the budget. Three and a half million dollars they spent telling us how to save petrol, if you can believe it. Mark and Jinny after eight, Richard and Steve are our offshore geniuses. Seven past six, here we go. Another of those consequential days in which all our lives are in one way or another connected via the mad web of global events that will be travailed yet again by our central bank. A central bank, like all central banks that have the unenviable task of working out when the strait opens, when the ships arrive, what the price of fertilizer will fall to, whether the spring rains come and what the price of a legged land will turn out to be sold for. Oh, and the cost of fuel and somewhere in there, whether our mood improves, no pressure then, eh? The consensus, if there is one, and that is what makes today so interesting, is we are not moving the cash rate. But that is only half the story. The real story is when do we move the cash rate? Because that is sure as night follows day, is what eventually we will have to do. This is the famed look through the price hike piece of the puzzle. Yes, prices are rising. Yes, that's inflationary. But how much is temporary? How much is permanent? How much is simply a default position of the if you can you will mentality as practiced by the banks and the councils and the power companies? Is it possible? Small startup at 10. Is it possible? It might not be as bad as they thought. You see, readings this past week from Japan, Britain, and Singapore all showed inflation in at less than they thought. Could we be the same? The balancing act, and in that is the real danger. Uh the growth inflation trade-off. Inflation this time is not growth related. So in killing inflation with a rate rise, are you killing off not growth, but the future hope of growth? That would be a disaster. But in waiting, if inflation is off to the races and the RB get there too late, do they smother the green shoots of a post-Iran celebration? Oh, the drama. So today is not about rate rises, it's the observation, it's the commentary, it's the vibe. Worst thing they could do today is hike. Second worst thing they could do today is tell us they don't have a clue. And yet, it's that second thing that may well come to pass, leaving uncertainty and no great decision was ever made against the backdrop of bewilderment and uncertainty. Did I say no pressure then?