Small Party Influence

Look, I'm not one to get excited at election time about the outside chance that some small party's going to make it into Parliament. But I reckon this year's different. I reckon if opportunity plays this right, they may actually do it. They've got a good chance. Yesterday's Roy Morgan poll had them at 6%. Now, I don't know how much stock I put in that poll yesterday. It was really volatile. National went up 5%. Labour went down 7.5%. And I think swings that big have got to be questioned because they just don't seem credible. But this is now a trend for opportunity. They are now sitting close to, or in this case, above five in multiple polls. And knocking off 5% is the one thing they really have to do, because this is the biggest hurdle for a small party trying to get in from the outside. Voters do not want to vote for a party if they don't think it's going to make it in. It's a weird part of our voter psyche that makes no sense, the wasted vote thing. But it's not a concern for opportunity at this stage. It might not matter if they can keep polling this high. Now I reckon what's going on here is they are benefiting from the same thing that New Zealand First is benefiting from at the moment, which is voter frustration. Same with Pauline Hansel, Nigel Farage, Donald Trump. Voters are so frustrated by regular politicians ignoring them and their concerns for decades now that they just want to blow things up. They'll vote for whoever they think is going to blow it up. Break up the supermarket duopoly, break up the Gen Taylors, buyback BNZ, stop the immigration, whatever the idea, doesn't matter how kooky, it's interesting now. For voters on the right, New Zealand First is their blow it up party. For voters on the left, their blow it up party is opportunity. Because opportunity is the party for voters who are frustrated by Lev Labour, who never do anything, never brave enough to do anything, and voters who are frustrated by the Greens who are just too weird really to be taken seriously. Opportunity is a radical left-wing party with a land tax and a UBI fronted by a nice lady from Auckland. Now, if they can play this right, if that polling can hold up close to 5%, 2026 might just to coin a phrase on this show, be their year. For more from the Mike Asking Breakfast, listen live to News Talks Ed B from 6 a.m. weekdays or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.