This piece warns that the Iran-Middle East conflict is disrupting global fertilizer supply chains, leading to rising costs and crop failures in key food-producing nations like India and the United States, with severe implications for global food security.
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Well, it's an uh looking at all our commodities and our farm inputs and oil and freight and interest and exchange rates. Just a very quick synopsis for you and your tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of listeners, uh Heather. Uh dairy's looking pretty positive. The powders are up, the fats are down. That's good news if you're buying butter in the supermarket. And those Americans with their weight loss drugs are pushing skim milk powder through the roof and way. We talked about that, I think, last week. So dairy's looking really solid. I think uh we're gonna get a payout in the high nines. Who knows? It might even get to ten. Beef's pretty good, but there is some uh increased supply around the world, but there seems to be an insatiable demand out of the US. Sheep is good off the back of just tight supplied, and plus with our free trade agreements with the likes of the UK and the EU. We're getting more sheep in there than we're used to. Uh farm inputs, this is where the trouble begins. You know, some of the fertilizer urea, nitrogen fertilizer prices have doubled, phosphates, uh, which is our main form of fertilizer here in this country's up around 20%, all to do with the Middle East. Uh oil and freight. God, I mean, goodness only knows what's going to happen there. That's in the hands of someone uh in another country other than us. And interest rate and exchange rate, it was interesting. Uh they're picking uh no move in the OCR in May. Remember, they left it unchanged in April. Uh, but there will be maybe two or three before the end of the year. We'll all look forward to that one. And the exchange rate we started uh, or we were at 59 when this report was written. We're in high, I think we're about 59.66 at the moment. They're picking Rabobank. The Boffins at Rabobank are saying an exchange rate of 62 US cents uh by year's end or in the next 12 months, which is not that good for exporters. It's okay, but the good news is it will make our imports, namely fuel and fertilizer, a wee bit cheaper.
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rising prices driven by global supply shocks
Jamie Mackay: The Country host on what the latest Rabobank agribusiness monthly report means for Kiwi farmersSpotted something wrong on this page? Report a correction.
