The NZ Herald's podcast analyzes a sophisticated poll of polls model predicting an 88% chance of a coalition government winning, while questioning the reliability of such forecasts and examining Labour's struggles and NZ First's unexpected rise.
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Verbatim segments from politicians speaking on podcasts and radio shows about this topic. Sourced via the voice-reference library — each speaker has been confirmed manually from their voice clip. Click play to stream the original audio from the publisher, pre-seeked to the moment the quote starts.
If an election were held today, the coalition government would likely be returned to power and not by a narrow margin. A new NZ Herald Motu Research poll of polls model suggests that government has an 88% chance of winning a second term with support across national act and New Zealand First holding steady. It's a snapshot that raises some interesting questions though. Like, why isn't Labour's recovery translating into a path back to power? What's behind New Zealand First's surge and how much can we really read into polling this far out from an election? Today on the front page, NZ Herald political editor Thomas Coglin joins us to break down all of the numbers and what they're telling us.
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data-driven, nuanced, cautious interpretation
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