National Government Denial

Right, obviously what everybody in politics is talking about today is what's going to happen at the National Party caucus meeting in Wellington tomorrow morning, read the Prime Minister's ongoing leadership of the National Party. Now. I can't call it. I cannot tell you what's going to happen. On the one hand, the Prime Minister is under more pressure than he was before the weekend because of the One News Variant poll last night. Usually that thing is quite generous to the National Party. It overestimates the National Party to a degree, but last night not only did it put the National Party at 29.7, it also predicted a change of government, which means this becomes not just a backbencher's losing their seats problem, but a minister's losing their jobs. Jobs problem. But on the other hand, Luxon has managed to get himself through a tough round of media interviews this morning with grit and steel and confidence and his chief troublemaker Chris Bishop has now ruled himself out of the leadership in that Q&A interview yesterday, which surely means that the move against the Prime Minister has lost some momentum. There has been a lot of poo-pooing of the polls, which I frankly just do not buy into. I have not seen any evidence. that we have the kinds of polling trouble here in New Zealand that they've had in the UK, the US or Australia where they call for one side and then the other side takes so it basically comes through. Largely we don't have that problem because we run MMP, they run first past the post systems. Now that actually matters because just a little bit of inaccuracy in those countries polling can mean quite a big surprise if a bunch of marginal seats fall in the way that you weren't expecting. We do not have that here. Here, our mistakes in the polling and marginal seats get smoothed out by the party vote. Also, National is now sitting at 29.7 or thereabouts in four polls in a row, and there was another one about six weeks ago that started this all off. That means that what you're seeing last night is not a rogue, it is a trend. Choosing not to believe the polls feels like the last refuge of those who are in 100% denial of what is going on here. But ultimately it's not really up to us, is it? It's not up to us as voters, it's not up to us as voters. Not up to us as commentators. It's up to caucus, the National Party caucus. If the Prime Minister can get himself through tomorrow and then weather whatever happens over the seven days after that and then get himself through caucus Tuesday week, so he's got two caucuses to get through, if he can get himself through those two caucuses, he will most likely survive until at least well after the budget.