A podcast discussion with economist Ed McKnight explores the ongoing housing price downturn in New Zealand, particularly in Auckland and Wellington, highlighting its duration, affordability impacts, and shifting investor behavior toward shares as a safer alternative.
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Good morning, Heather. Nice to talk to you. Yeah, this one's going to become the record, isn't it? I think it probably will be, depending on how you run the numbers. But short answer, if we're at four and a half years and five years is the longest we've had in recent living memory, uh, it likely will stretch out because the trouble is that while in some areas of the country, house prices have already ticked up past where they were in their peak. That's places like Invercargling Christchurch. Our two big cities, Wellington and Auckland, are really struggling at the moment. We haven't seen any lift off in house prices since they bottomed out around about mid-2023. So when are you picking they're going to start picking up properly? Well, I I ran my numbers this morning. I know that uh one of your journalists at the New Zealand Herald has done the same thing. I give it about a 50% chance that Auckland recovers within five years, and a 75% chance that it recovers within 11 years.
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reality behind sticker price declines
Ed McKnight: Opes Partners Resident Economist on housing prices nearing their longest downturn in modern historySocial-media signal on the same topic, drawn from the social lens. Engagement is likes + 2×shares + 3×replies, the same weighting used across the digest cards. View on /social →
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