BNZ forecasts the unemployment rate to peak near 6 percent later this year as hiring intentions soften and labour market slack persists.
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How this topic has been named, week by week. A new alias winning out is usually a framing shift.
How the news corpus has covered this same topic over the last 12 weeks. 1 article from RNZ, Stuff, NZ Herald, ODT, 1News, Newsroom and The Spinoff. Click through to the press view for the full panel.
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And effectively, yeah, there's not a lot. In fact, there's basically nothing in these figures that really show anything from the conflict over in the Middle East. The survey was taken over the three months to March 2026. So you've had two months there where nothing was happening in the Middle East or certainly no conflict like we saw afterwards. But even then, if you sort of think about how people are employed, it wasn't like people went out on the 1st of March and started to fire their workers en masse. It was more that... There might well have been a little bit less hiring over that month, but really we're talking things at the margins. The data effectively will show through more of an impact potentially in the quarter we're currently in, the three months to June. But even then, we're probably not expecting a huge amount more. At Infometrics, for example, we're expecting that you could potentially see the unemployment rate increase up to sort of 5.5%. It's more that those hiring intentions... The pensions are likely to be more subdued, i.e. businesses probably won't be, I guess, as keen to hire into the future just because of how uncertain things are. But that's very much in the future, whereas this data today was very much looking at the past.
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cautious outlook due to economic uncertainty
Brad Olsen: Infometrics Principal Economist on whether unemployment is set to get worse againSocial-media signal on the same topic, drawn from the social lens. Engagement is likes + 2×shares + 3×replies, the same weighting used across the digest cards. View on /social →
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