A business editor discusses the Reserve Bank's inflation messaging, emphasizing cautious vigilance, subtle hawkish signals, and the potential for future interest rate hikes if inflation becomes entrenched, while noting economic sluggishness may limit aggressive action.
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I was. I think the Reserve Bank, you know, delivered a good, clear statement. It was pretty balanced. And to a large extent, the governor repeated what he said in a speech a couple of weeks ago. So I think it's good she's keeping the messaging consistent and clear and in line with expectations. So the big takeaway really is that, you know, for now the Reserve Bank is watching and waiting. But if it sees inflation start to become embedded, so businesses start to really lift prices in response to higher fuel costs and also employees start to demand higher wages, those things see higher prices become embedded. If that happens, inflation might rise above the target range in the medium term. Medium term is the key phrase there. And in that instance, the Reserve Bank would hike the OCR sooner than would otherwise have been the case. So the market reckons the OCR could go up in September. But the Reserve Bank has said that, you know, while it's balanced and all that type of thing, it is ready to act decisively. That's quite a strong word in Reserve Bank speech. Act decisively and in a timely way should it, you know, become really worried about inflation.
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consistent and clear, reduces ambiguity
Jenee Tibshraeny: NZ Herald Wellington business editor on what the Middle East conflict could do to inflationSpotted something wrong on this page? Report a correction.
