Government Transition

The economy has to improve. Is our economy going to improve between now and November? No, it's not going to happen. In fact, our economy is probably going to get crushed further by Iran in the fuel crisis. So the most likely scenario we're now facing is the economy gets worse, therefore national's polling gets worse, therefore those 11 MPs and maybe even more lose their jobs come November. Meanwhile, this ongoing destabilising campaign that we saw in the Herald today continues. Someone is deliberately continuously planting stories in the media. Right, that will continue to happen. That's not going to stop. It will drive the polls down further. It will make Luxon look even more like a lame duck prime minister. This destabilising will keep happening. So what happens then, right, if we assume the economy doesn't get better, the polling doesn't get better, the destabilising continues, is that maybe three months out from the election, in the depths of winter, the National Party loses its nerve and rolls Chris Luxon out of desperation to save the furniture. I see no way. That anything else happens. So let's say that's scenario number one. They can now hope and pray they can do that. It's a strategy. Maybe, just maybe, something miraculous happens that saves their butts like COVID saved Jacinda in 2020. But that is hope and prayer stuff. Second scenario is they pull the pin. They pull the pin, they switch Chris Luxon out for someone else. They call an early election for that person to seek a mandate while that person still has a honeymoon period and before winter and the Iran crisis make us even more miserable than we already are. Now, if I was the National Party caucus, I would be going for the second option because, as I say, I reckon the polling is now so consistently bad that the leadership change is going to happen anyway before the election. They can only choose when and how messy they let it get.