The article discusses how the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent oil price increases could derail New Zealand's early economic growth momentum, with long-term effects on interest rates and GDP.
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Welcome today, GDP, the state of the place. The fuel price warning, are we getting fleece? Dame Nolin on our Com Game Squad. Charlie Pooth is back in for a catch-up after eight. Joe's in Italy Ender all over today and the make a field by election. Welcome to the day, seven past six. Yes, things won't get back to the so-called normal this week. But when the straight opens and the oil flows, I think before we know it, it will all be in the rear view mirror, and a reminder of that day comes in the form of our GDP number sometime later on today. Now, this is for Q1, of course, Jan and Fab in March, before it all hit the fan. I mean, yes, oil was rising during that period, but a lot was still to unfold. What we will see is a figure, I think of about one percent. If you annualise that out, that's four percent, which is a lot of growth. Now, the trouble with news is the negative stuff grabs too much attention. There has been and indeed is quite a lot of good news about, and the war didn't really change any of that. So exports are booming. And they are helped by our dollar. New Zealanders are now returning from Australia, if you haven't noticed, as increasing numbers of them realize the tax rates are high. The cost of a house is high. The polling this week on their recent budget showed just nine percent thought it was good for the country. I mean, the government's economic credibility is shot. Think also of the fact as petrol drops, that money gets put into other parts of the economy. And here's my anecdotal view for what it's worth. Despite all the misery around the news cycle, the war for many hasn't actually changed a lot. Most people have work. Most people are on top of their finances, and a lot of businesses that are good at what they do are doing fine. Thank you very much. And given the Iran deal, that can only improve from here on in. When we get to the GDP numbers for Q2, they will be flat, if not slightly backwards. But what today will show is the war wasn't on us. We didn't start it. We just had to suck it up like everyone else. And as such, we were tracking nicely. We will track nicely again. The fundamentals are all there, which means they will kick back in. It's not like we're starting again. The hard work has already been done. We paused, we held our breath, we got through and out the other side. Damage done, emergency avoided. We can get back to business. GDP today is a picture of what was and what will be again before you know it. And broadly speaking, it's a pretty solid picture.
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early economic recovery threatened by external shocks
First quarter GDP expected to lift prior to subsequent oil shock derailmentSpotted something wrong on this page? Report a correction.
